The heat is on – climate change and the oil endgame
May 18-21, 2006

Most people are now aware of the 21st century’s twin problems of global warming and the end of cheap oil. Media interest is growing and we are beginning to feel the pain of the major disclocations to be forced upon our societies – but why is it that so little action has been taken?

Understanding the barriers to progress and how they can be overcome will be a central theme of this year’s Ankelohe Conversations. After bringing participants up to speed on what Science knows so far, the symposium will address how writers and public discourse itself can better engage with these twin challenges to help ensure public action and the necessary policy outcomes.

In other words: Can we “dumb up” the public discourse when it matters so much that we do? What stands in the way of this?

Only a few years ago, calls for action against global warming were routinely rejected as alarmist. Sceptical scientists and industrial lobby groups argued that climate change was not yet scientifically proven. One could wait and see a while longer.

This has changed. The broad majority of scientists and the media now accept the mounting evidence that a possibly catastrophic climate change is very real indeed. And yet, a mix of remnant scepticism and what appears to be collective denial or resignation still prevents action. Apart from a short-lived campaign in advance of the July 2005´s G8 summit in Edinburgh, there are still few signs that governments and society are ready to change course. The Kyoto treaty on greenhouse gas reductions, strongly opposed by Washington, is barely alive and may fail to get renewed.

Instead, adaptation appears to be the order of the day. After the recent series of destructive hurricanes in the South, it was seriously suggested in a major US newspaper that climate change could best be coped with by building wider northbound highways so that the population could flee future hurricanes faster.

To slow down climate change governments need to change their energy policies - just as the world is sliding into an energy crisis. Dwindling supplies and ever growing global consumption of oil, which provides for nearly half of the world's energy, may cause the price of oil to soar to unseen heights. With global oil demand estimated to rise by another 60% from now until the year 2020, especially in China and India, global production is expected to peak soon, making oil unaffordable to many countries and people.

The end of cheap oil only highlights the security aspects of energy: In most oil-producing countries petro-wealth has not led to sustained development but instead to corruption, political instability, oppression, social crises, economic decline, environmental degradation as well as bloody inter-state and civil wars. Today, energy wars are a real threat: Following the war in Iraq, the United States is now openly competing with China for access to oil fields around the world.

As if the industrialised nations´ increasing dependence on foreign oil imports was not worrying enough, much of that oil lies in the unstable Middle East, the hotbed of radical Islamic terrorism. Since the September 11 attacks it has become clear how the politics of oil contribute to the rise of terrorism. Western support for oppressive and corrupt oil sheiks has bred popular resentment, and Saudi petrodollars have been used to fund anti-American jihadist groups, including Al Qaeda.

Is there a way out of the energy crisis and global warming? While some experts champion more efficient technologies to both increase fossil fuel production and to conserve energy, others call for an alternative energy policy shifting to decentralised solar power and to next-generation transportation fuels such as hydrogen fuel cells. Again others promote the expansion of nuclear power to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate change is a simmering catastrophe that few journalists enjoy writing about, partly because it is complicated and lacks the usual man-against-man conflict pattern. The same is true for energy issues. Instead, most journalists prefer to cover the many little and large straw fires of the present. Economic worries continue to excuse lack of action. Obsession with terrorism is the ideal diversion from a problem that is ultimately more dangerous.

Writers have a key role to play in changing this. The core questions at the symposium will therefore be: What mechanisms are at play in the collective failure to take climate change seriously? Why are green policies failing? How can we write effectively about climate and energy issues, and galvanise people and governments into action? What scenarios exist for the global transition into a post-oil era? If we accept that global warming and the end of cheap oil will force major changes and dislocations on our societies and lifestyles we need to start discussing our plans for them now.

The symposium’s theme is explored mainly through presentations by and discussions with renowned guest speakers such as climate and energy experts, politicians, strategists, oil executives, and environmental campaigners. There is also an English-style debate which participants can join. Generally, everything said is considered off-the-record under Chatham House rules. The standard language for the conference is English but translation can be arranged.

To reach a wider audience the symposium opens up for a public panel discussion on the last evening to which about 100 guests and media representatives are to be invited. They have the opportunity to discuss with the participants and meet them at the garden party. The organisers can assist guests in finding hotel accommodation in nearby Bad Bederkesa.